COVID-19 Trends Not Wonderful
Last updated 5/18/2020 at 12:07pm
As a local retired engineer, I analyzed the CDC COVID-19 new cases trend, and it’s not wonderful.
I pulled up the CDC New Cases data page and used the same technique I did for years at Motorola to track and trend the data.
Using a 21-day weighted averages, from April 1, 2020, through May 13, 2020, the rate of new cases is only dropping 191 a day, on average. If you use the number of new cases on May 14 as a starting point and estimate how long it will take to reach zero new cases, based on all other variable being held equal (like any new flu seasons, etc.), then it will take 147 days.
That would put us out toward Nov. 21, 2020, or Thanksgiving!
If the actions taken in North Carolina and throughout the United States to relax social distancing, mask wearing and hand-washing practices result in a negative impact on the rate of new cases, I can see how the worst case scenarios have us dealing with this issue for a couple of years.